Shanghai Cooperation Organisation

Kazakhstan woke up to a drastically different day on the day after New Year's Day 2022. LPG prices, which suddenly doubled overnight, became the first driving force behind a social resistance that would grow exponentially and last for weeks, as if someone had pressed the start button. As the largest of the independent Turkic states left behind by the post-Soviet era, the Kazakh state was being driven into serious instability in public opinion due to the economic and social inequalities created by the oligarchic regime centred around the Nazarbayev family over the past 30 years. Illegal practices, widespread corruption and bribery, low wages, a monopolised market, and anti-democratic practices such as restrictions on fundamental rights and freedoms and censorship were fuelling the possibility of a growing rebellion and deadlock in society. Although the lack of predictability and socio-economic uncertainty seemed to have ended with the outbreak of protests and their eventual suppression by Russian intervention, we cannot fully conclude that the Tokayev administration's promised reforms have led to a new path for the Kazakh people in economic and political terms. This is because if the reforms are not deemed sufficient by society, no one can claim that there is no possibility of a social resistance similar to the events of 2022 occurring again in the near future. The SCO will work to identify the factors that require caution regarding this risk and to take preventive measures. Having a concrete example from the past partially fulfils the need for sufficient data for analyses and facilitates examinations and the search for solutions. Additionally, the Kazakhstani example can serve as a lesson not only for itself but also for all other post-Soviet states in post-Cold War era.